The Vulprisian Daily Post

Almost immediately after a baseball player announces his retirement, the talk about will he or won’t he eventually have a plaque in the Baseball Hall of Fame begins. And after 18 Big League seasons, the “Moose,” Mike Mussina has entered that discussion. The Yankee Scrolls has a write-up here making the case from a Yankee fan’s perspective. The author, Jim Green, makes some good points in support:

When you look at what Mussina did in Baltimore, it’s easy to see why so much was expected of him: he had won at least 11 games in each of his nine full seasons, including two 19-win years and two 18-win years, he made five All-Star teams and seven times was a top-10 finisher for the Cy Young Award. Amazingly, Moose has never made an All-Star team with the Yankees, although he was a top-10 finisher for the Cy Young in his first season in pinstripes.

Coming off a relatively down year in which he went 11-15 with a 3.79 ERA and 210 strikeouts, Mussina fled Baltimore for the riches of New York, signing a 6-year, $88.5 million deal to replace David Cone and join an already stellar rotation of Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte and Orlando Hernandez. Since the thought at the time was Mussina could be a 20-game winner every year with the Yankees’ lineup, there were times during his first year that he was thought of as disappointing. And that’s ridiculous when you look at his terrific numbers in 2001: 17-11, 3.15 ERA, 202 hits allowed, an awesome 214/48 K/BB ratio in 228 2/3 innings and a sparkling 1.07 WHIP. Clemens went 20-3 and won the Cy Young that year (Mussina finished sixth) but looking back, you can make a strong case that Moose was the best pitcher on the team. Mussina was in the top 10 in pretty much every category, including finishing second in ERA, strikeouts and shutouts (three). I love Chien-Ming Wang, but as great as he is, he’ll never put up a year like that. In fact, the only Yankee since then to have those kinds of numbers across the board was Mussina himself two years later. But let’s not skip his second season in New York.

In 2002, Mussina was 18-10, and while his ERA rose to 4.05, his other stats remained terrific, with 208 hits allowed, a 182/48 K/BB ratio and a 1.19 WHIP. He was eighth in the league in wins, again second in strikeouts and third in shutouts (two). He came back in 2003 and was great again, going 17-8 with a 3.40 ERA, 192 hits allowed, a 195/40 K/BB ratio and a beautiful 1.08 WHIP. He was fifth in wins, eighth in ERA and fourth in strikeouts. Because of the slop he’s forced to work with now, it’s difficult to remember this, but he really was a dominant pitcher his first few years in the Bronx.

Mussina’s stats are very consistent through 2003 with minor blips in ERA and a pair of losing seasons (one in his first year which I will cancel out). His 270 wins are solid, and in today’s baseball world 300 is getting out of reach. I’ll give him a pass on that.

Continuing:

When you take Mussina’s career into account, he’s almost, kinda sorta a borderline Hall of Famer, despite never having won 20 games in a season. He’s managed to win in double-figures in each of his 16 full major-league seasons — a feat which should not be ignored — and he’s fourth among active pitchers with 254 wins, behind only guys who are locks for Cooperstown: Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and Randy Johnson.

(The post quoted here is from May, so change that 254 to 270. And he also won 20 this year, so a little out of date.)

There they are. Those names. This is where I turn negative on Mussina’s Cooperstown chances, and it’s about timing. He’s retiting at the end of the 2008 Championship season, which makes him eligible for the Hall during the 2014 season. Right now we don’t know when the likes of Maddux, Glavine, Johnson or the other dominant Brave, John Smoltz will retire. All of these are sure HOFers, especially on the first ballot.

The Hall has on their website a list of the eligible players and when they can be elected (scroll down for it on the bottom right). Mussina will be up against the Big Three Braves in the first few years, then Randy Johnson. And that’s if you only count the pitchers. We don’t know when Frank Thomas (tied with Ted Williams for homers) or Ken Griffey,, Jr. (remember the ‘96 Griffey for President Nike ads?) will call it quits, and lets look farther down the road: Derek Jeter, Chipper Jones even A-Rod. Compared to their accomplishments, he’ll be standing still while they rush on by.

Sure, the rules for induction state you only need 75% of the vote and there’s no limit to the number who can get in a single season (well, there is with each BBWAA voting for ten and if not all of them vote for a player, more then ten can get in…not having a Stats degree hurts here), but I’m not convinced of it.

Should he get in? There’s a case for it. Will he? There are too many people I’d put ahead of him, so I’d say no. Not in the first five ballot cycles. Then in the later 2010’s and early 2020’s, we don’t know how a pitcher who is in their early career now will end up. Mussina’s chances are 20-30% at best.